Of the 20 million or so businesses in the US, and millions more around the world, surprisingly the majority of them don't actually want to grow beyond their current size, according to a study by Erik Hurst and Benjamin Pugsley of the University of Chicago. (You can find the study here.) But if you're like the rest, you have a dream or vision of success that often hinges on the existence of a market opportunity that you can tap, or a need you think you can fulfill.
Classical Keynesian economics provides a simple way to tell you whether you have a market oportunity or not. So if you're contemplating investing in growth, you can use the model below to see if it's worth your while.
The first step in determining if there's an opportunity is to estimate the total size of the market you want to go after. This data is often freely available from the government, investment sites, or business publications.
Estimate your Total Market Size, and the Addressable Fraction, by replacing the numbers in the tables below (without commas) with those that reflect your best guess as to your target market's size, and your view of what fraction you can legitimately can go after.